Correlation and Causality- Covid in Massachusetts Schools
The AP posted a story yesterday that should be interesting for any of our data-centric friends… Despite the surge in COVID-19 cases among Massachusetts teachers and students, there’s no indication that school buildings are where those cases are being transmitted.
According to Russell Johnston, senior associate commissioner at the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE), the majority of those cases are being transmitted outside of school, at family events, sporting events, and after-school activities
According to Medscape (free with registration), this is at least somewhat corroborated by findings from Michigan this winter that tracked coronavirus cases back to winter sporting events, and in particular youth atheletes gathering after those events.
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While our district has followed the ebbs and flows of the greater Massachusetts trajectory of cases, we consistently remain well below the average for the town. When cases increase among families, the kids (or parents if they are our staff) bring it into school OR are simply counted as school cases. The next few weeks, where we are now under 6ft distancing and many more people in the buildings, will be the true test.
Thanks John- Good luck! I was speaking with a school in Toronto yestderday… They’d gone back after Easter break on Tuesday only to find out Tuesday night that they had to go virtual for 4 weeks.
I’d have to say this article is consistent with what we are seeing here, too. Though it’s not always possible to know where we “catch” the virus, there has been no evidence of transmission at school and we are experiencing negative pool testing.
What is it… 10 weeks to go?
Thanks Suzy- good luck to you all! Yeah, there was interesting guidance from the CDC the other day that there’s a 1:10,000 chance of catching the virus from surfaces at this point which is (I think) one of the big concerns in schools right now when it comes to “disinfecting” the building. Sounds like air-exchange is the where the priority needs to be.